My Suggestion Of A Future Peak Hour Express Bus From Box Hill To The CBD

The Box Hill Metropolitan Activity Centre 2036 Draft Master Plan states: “The resident population of BHMAC has grown by 3% per annum from 3,800 people in 2006 to 5,100 in 2016…. The resident population is anticipated to grow to between 12,700 and 14,000 people by 2036, requiring between 4,000 and 4600 additional dwellings. The majority of new housing in the BHMAC is anticipated to be in medium and high rise apartments and mixed use development.” 

This means that the Box Hill activity centre will see huge growth in the next decade or so with the population set to become more than double what it was in 2016. Much of that growth has already occurred. One can see that the skyline has changed dramatically since 2016 with residential skyscrapers repeatedly popping up. The latest approval is for a fifty one story residential tower which will be part of the redevelopment of Box Hill Central. 

Such residential growth will put huge pressure on Melbourne’s busiest train line - the Lilydale/Belgrave train line that runs through Box Hill - as more and more people commute to the city from Box Hill. Additionally, along this train line Hawthorn, Camberwell, Ringwood, Croydon, Bayswater and Boronia will all also see population growth as they are Major Activity Centres. This will put further pressure on peak hour travel into the city. 

The Suburban Rail Loop will also no doubt add further pressure on the Lilydale/Belgrave line as commuters from the growing suburb of Burwood switch train lines at Box Hill and head towards the city. Others will come from the Doncaster (SRL) station to switch at Box Hill and head into the city. This is an attractive commute since there are three tracks between Box Hill and the CBD (four tracks from Burnley to the CBD) which allows for express trains into the city during the morning peak hour, more than any other line. 

Presently, during the morning peak on the Lilydale train line, the train is already full by the time it reaches Ringwood station. Then, by the time the train reaches Box Hill, commuters waiting on the platform are often forced to wait for the next train as the carriages are completely full. This problem exists because there are only two tracks between Box Hill and Mooroolbark and a single track between Mooroolbark and Lilydale which means less trains running. There is allowance for three tracks to be built up to Nunawading but this won’t solve the problem (that I just mentioned) as there needs to be three lines all the way to Lilydale. Even if three lines were built from Box Hill to Lilydale there will still be serious congestion problems from Box Hill to the CBD in the future. 

With Melbourne's population projected to reach between 8-9 million by 2050, the 100 year old radial train line will seriously struggle with the increased demands that will be put on it. 

The Victorian Government has huge plans to upgrade the entire radial train network as outlined in The Melbourne Rail Plan 2020-2050. The main way that this will be done is by creating cross city lines that take train lines out of the city loop bottleneck. This means more trains more often as well as increased train capacity as longer trains can then be used. 

Despite these significant upgrades, I have a gut feeling that the Lilydale/Belgrave line that runs through Box Hill won’t keep up with 2050 demands. Upgrading to four tracks between Box Hill and the CBD will only allow for express trains in both directions. It won’t allow for more trains to the CBD during the morning peak and the reverse in the evening peak. Quadrupling the track doesn’t seem to be on the cards any way and would require land acquisitions as well as widening of bridges. Box Hill will also have huge jobs growth with an estimated 10,000 more jobs between 2016 and 2036. So, an express train outbound to Box Hill in the morning peak will be very useful anyway. 

Let’s assume that my instincts are right about the future of Box Hill and the Lilydale/Belgrave train line. Then action needs to be taken in future to solve these serious congestion issues. 

I have come up with an idea to create a pressure relief valve during peak travel times. That is to build a dedicated peak hour express bus service that runs from Box Hill to the CBD. This would be a peak hour service running in both directions during the morning and evening peak times. 

I am suggesting an express bus service that would run from Box Hill and would also use the Doncaster Busway to get buses into the CBD. This BRT route would start from its underground terminus at Box Hill in which it will have fast and direct walking connections to the orbital train station (SRL) as well as the radial train station (Lilydale/Belgrave line). Once the bus departs Box Hill, it would run through a 2.4km dedicated underground passage (parallel to the Suburban Rail Loop tunnel) and will continue through this passage right up until it enters the Eastern Freeway. This is the fastest way to connect to the Eastern Freeway, and won’t burden local roads.  

On the Eastern Freeway there will need to be some modifications in order to allow for a tunnel portal and an extension of the Doncaster Busway. The extension of the Doncaster Busway will take the starting point (of the busway) away from Doncaster Rd and move the starting point to somewhere between Elgar St and Station St. This will align the busway with the tunnel portal which will allow the Box Hill Express Bus to flow straight onto the Eastern Freeway Busway. 

Once the bus is on the freeway busway it will bypass both the Doncaster and Bulleen Park & Rides and run directly into the CBD. 

This peak hour express bus trip from Box Hill to the CBD should take around 20 – 25 minutes. The buses would likely depart every 4-6 minutes. The buses would likely be long vehicles that can carry 100 - 150 passengers. There will be multiple seats as well as different seat options which is unlike regular buses that only have twin seat options. The idea is that everyone gets a seat as opposed to standing in a packed train. 

The express bus won’t be as fast as the express train from Box Hill to the CBD. But it will work well as a pressure relief valve during peak times. It will also provide an express trip in the reverse direction during peak hour (unlike the train line) which would get workers to Box Hill (from the CBD) quicker than the train would. This would not only be CBD residents but also commuters coming from the west and the north who will interchange in the CBD to ride the express bus to Box Hill and thus avoid riding a stopping at all stations train. Such a project will also be future proof as more buses can be easily added (unlike trains) to match growing demand.